The Global community has reached the year 2026, and we still haven’t found a way to live in peace. People who read my works know that I am a “Lover of Peace”.
Throughout history, conflicts between vastly unequal powers have produced devastating consequences for the weaker side: mass casualties, destroyed infrastructure, and long-term instability. Yet narratives often claim that these weaker groups “started” the conflict. We are about to examine why such situations occur, who truly benefits, and why the surface explanation rarely reflects the deeper truth.
Historically, there have been myths of the “Weaker Aggressor!” The fact is, a small nation, militia, or marginalized population rarely initiates war, believing they can defeat a major military power. The historical record is clear: weaker actors suffer catastrophic losses, while stronger powers achieve strategic objectives. When a weaker group appears to be preparing for war, it is usually a sign that something else is happening beneath the surface.
Major powers frequently use “Provocation and Manufactured Justification” to create conditions in which the weaker side appears to be the aggressor. The major parties’ use of “Provocation and Manufactured Justification” to frame the weaker party as the aggressor. Some common tactics used by the major parties include economic blockades, territorial incursions, covert operations, proxy militias, and political destabilization. Once the weaker actor responds, the stronger power claims justification for full-scale war. This pattern is one of the oldest in geopolitics.
Leaders of weaker groups or nations may face internal crises of internal political survival. General rebellions lead to economic collapse or loss of legitimacy. In such cases, escalating conflict can temporarily unify their population. Again, the situations facing weak leaders are not strategic warfare; they are political survival.
Often, major parties use proxy dynamics and external manipulation. In these cases, many weaker actors are often influenced, funded, or armed by larger powers seeking conflict without appearing as aggressors. In these cases, the weaker group becomes the spark, not the instigator. The true driver of the conflict lies elsewhere.
Wars create strategic benefits for major powers. Major powers may benefit from war through resource control, territorial expansion, weakening rivals, securing military bases, domestic political distraction, and defense industry profits. The weaker population rarely benefits. They pay the price in blood and destruction.
Some weaker actors believe international intervention or global sympathy will restrain the stronger power. This is often a tragic miscalculation. When a population faces an existential threat, genocide, occupation, or annihilation, they may fight even if defeat is certain. In these cases, conflict is not initiated out of ambition but out of necessity.
When we determine who truly benefits from war, we also know who the instigator is.
As stated earlier, the beneficiaries of these conflicts are seldom the weaker groups. Instead, they tend to be major powers, regional rivals, political elites, arms manufacturers, or external actors seeking destabilization. The weaker group becomes a pawn in a larger geopolitical game.
In conclusion, when a vastly weaker actor appears to start a war with a major power, the deeper truth is almost always that they were provoked, cornered, manipulated, or forced into a situation where conflict became unavoidable. No rational leader willingly chooses annihilation. Understanding these dynamics is essential to identifying the true instigators and preventing future conflicts. If you evaluate all the wars and conflicts in existence today, you can easily identify who the instigators are and who the victims are.
In the end, the future of global stability depends on something profoundly simple: every state must obey the laws of war, and every community must insist on it. International humanitarian law is not an abstract framework reserved for diplomats and tribunals — it is the world’s promise to protect civilians, safeguard dignity, and restrain the violence that has scarred generations. When governments ignore these obligations, they do more than violate statutes; they unravel the moral fabric that holds the human family together.
Our global community can no longer afford silence or selective outrage. We must demand full compliance with IHL as a baseline of civilization — a universal expectation that transcends borders, politics, and alliances. The protection of human life is not negotiable. If humanity is to move forward, then accountability, lawful conduct, and the defense of civilian dignity must be the standards we all uphold.
